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Mosquito season prediction for 2024

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After a record year for mosquitos in 2023, experts are closely monitoring numbers in 2024.

DENVER — Health experts are urging Coloradans to take precautions after the state’s first human West Nile virus case of 2024 was confirmed in Arapahoe County.

It follows a record year for West Nile cases in Colorado, with 634 total cases reported. That’s more than the previous four years combined.

In total, 386 people were hospitalized, up from just 143 in 2022.

One of those patients was Doug Pfluger, a Denver man who believes he was bit in his backyard.

“I was fine one day working in the garage and the backyard, and that night, I was laying on the floor,” he said.

Pfluger has multiple sclerosis but says he never had any serious complications until contracting West Nile virus.

He says he’s struggled to regain balance and full motor function following the bout with the virus.

“They told me to expect six months to a year to really start to being close to a full recovery, and I don’t know if I’m going to make it by August. It’s still pretty tough,” he said. “I was basically paralyzed. I couldn’t move my fingers, toes, anything, and that was really dark.”

While cases like Pfluger’s remain rare, the spike in serious cases in 2023 has some concerned about what 2024 could have in store.

“It’s in our mind, and we’re expecting more of the same,” said MSU biology professor Bob Hancock.

Hancock, known affectionately as the “mosquito man,” has been capturing and studying Colorado mosquitos for decades.

He says a record population in 2023 could lead to high numbers in 2024.

“We had a lot of mosquitos last year, record numbers, and that means we had record numbers of mosquitos going into hibernation,” he said. “So, it’s probable that we’re having record mosquitos coming out of hibernacula, and here we are.”

Hancock says despite those concerns, early season traps aren’t showing anything out of the ordinary.

One reason could be the dry spring experienced in many portions of the Front Range.

“Less water means fewer mosquitos,” said Hancock. “So maybe they’ve died.”

Hancock says it will be a few weeks before we know just how serious this summer’s West Nile situation will be.

“This time of year, I just don’t have a crystal ball.”

Pfluger says he’s hoping for the best and hopes others don’t have to experience what he’s been through.

“I’ve heard that this year’s going to be worse than last year, so I wish everybody luck, and hopefully, not too many people have to go through it like I did.”

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